Introduction

Many conservative voters fear that their voices are not being echoed by Republicans in the halls of Congress.  How well do Republicans in Congress really represent the views, values, and priorities of their voters?  To answer this question, Baron partnered with Echelon Insights to conduct research, sponsored by the Institute for Political Innovation, measuring the ideological divide between Republican Congressmen and likely GOP voters.  Marshaling a combination of legislative analysis and public opinion polling, Echelon’s study revealed a significant gap between the views of Republican voters and the stances of their federal representatives. 

Key Findings:

• Republican Congressmen do not represent the views of GOP voters, who are at once more populist, more conservative, and more moderate than their representatives. 
• An emergent bloc of populist voters – who lean less free-market on economic issues yet right on social and cultural issues – is essentially unrepresented in the U.S. House.  This divide is especially stark in the context of the Trump-Vance presidential ticket. 
• The mismatch between Republican voters and members is apparent in several policy debates around issues concerning economics, health care, and foreign policy. 
• Today, populist voters are the decisive part of the GOP coalition: to defeat the progressive plurality in the likely electorate, conservatives depend on the support of populists. 

Comparisons: Voters and Representatives

Comparing 239 roll call votes in the House with a survey of 2,247 likely voters, Echelon Insights measured the ideological divisions between Republican U.S. Congressmen and likely GOP voters across four key dimensions: 1) social conservatism; 2) populism; 3) traditional conservatism; and 4) moderation. 

 [*Members who did not serve in the 117th Congress (2021-2023) are excluded due to lack of relevant votes.]

• Social Conservatism: GOP Congressmen polarize around social issues.  While more than a third of Republican Congressmen were very socially conservative, more than a quarter displayed very low social conservatism.  This polarization did not reflect GOP voters, most of whom were moderately-to-highly socially conservative. 
•  Populism: The overwhelming majority (71.4 percent) of Republican Congressmen scored very low in populism compared to just 4 percent of GOP respondents who also scored very low in populism.  Conversely, 72.1 percent of GOP respondents scored high in populism, exposing a major rift between GOP voters and House Members.
• Traditional Conservatism: While GOP voters showed moderate support for traditional conservative stances – opposing policies such as gun control, policing reform, and drug legalization – a plurality of GOP House Members scored very low.
• Moderation: While nearly three quarters of GOP Congressmen scored very low in moderation, nearly half of GOP voters held a more positive view of legislative actions and proposals that involved compromise or bipartisanship.

Republican voters are at once more moderate, populist, and traditionally conservative than their Representatives.  How is that possible?  Among voters, there is considerable overlap between those holding both populist and moderate viewpoints.  Yet, in Congress, Republican moderates and populists rarely overlap.  The syncretic politics of a figure like President Donald Trump – who espouses many views that are more moderate than the traditional GOP, even if many of his positions are stridently populist – more closely resemble that of the typical Republican voter than those of either moderate or populist Republicans in Congress. 

Republican voters differed significantly from Republican Congressmen in their views on several important pieces of legislation considered during the last two Congresses.  As charted below, these differences between likely GOP voters’ views and Members’ votes demonstrate a significant ideological disconnect, where House Republicans seem to ignore their voter base’s more populist preferences.

The Problem: A Divide between Congress and the People

Analysis of the broader electorate reveals the need for Republicans to integrate populists.  Progressives comprise a substantial plurality at 42 percent of the likely electorate.  Populists comprise another 22 percent of the electorate while conservatives retain their share of 32 percent of the electorate.  In contrast, libertarians represent an endangered species among the electorate, with only 4 percent of the vote share.  America’s current electoral system does not provide sufficient incentives for reflecting the diversity of voter preferences within either of the major parties. 

Congressmen, under the current electoral system, have very few incentives to faithfully represent the views of their constituents, especially when they’re rewarded with status and influence for conforming to the views of their adopted milieu in Washington.  Many of the GOP’s successes in recent years stem not from the quality of its representation, but merely from the party’s association with President Donald Trump.  It was not a foregone conclusion in 2016 that the populist movement would bolster the Republicans: Trump’s rise within the GOP was an adversarial process that cleared away a more strident strain of traditional religious and constitutional conservatives within the party to make room for the populist, and oftentimes more moderate, voters flowing into the party. 

Looking at election cycles to come, the GOP must integrate populists, who seek to leverage government power to achieve conservative social goals, in order to triumph over the progressive plurality of Democrats, who will expand government to achieve liberal social goals.  The choice is whether to respect a growing number of voters who may not adhere to free market principles but who embrace the conservative social and cultural agenda, or to endure declining political control in the name of rigid ideological integrity.  While many populist voters still vote for the GOP today, there is no guarantee that they will not migrate once again after Trump’s time on the national stage has passed, especially if other Republican leaders do not honor their trust.  Even in the near future, the gains of a potential second Trump administration might be undercut if Republican Congressmen lack sufficient incentives to reflect the expressed views of their voters.  While some observers may charge that many House Republicans are populists on account of their brash rhetoric and professed loyalty to President Trump, they have not so far pursued the populist policy aims that are important to a still-growing share of the electorate and essential to President Trump’s appeal.

Solution: Electoral Reform

Final Five Voting (FFV) – an open, single-ballot primary and instant-runoff general election among the top five finishers from the primary – promises to close the ideological distance between Republican voters and their elected Congressmen.  FFV offers a system that better reflects voter preferences and which promises to reliably elect leaders who are more representative of and responsive to the average Republican voter. 

Under FFV, candidates will always face a contested primary election that will motivate them to pay closer attention to their constituents and remain more faithful to their promises once in office.  FFV enables the expression of nuanced voter preferences and encourages candidates to build creative coalitions.   A central part of FFV’s appeal is its fostering of coalition-building in an era when voters increasingly express political leanings that do not map neatly onto traditional American party divides.  By employing its instant run-off election system to provide voters with up to five ordered choices in each election, FFV eliminates the spoiler effect and allows candidates of varied ideological priorities to play a tangible electoral role even if they are unlikely to win outright.  Most importantly, FFV moves the venue of competition away from progressive Washington, DC, and back into Republican electorates across the country.

Recognizing that voting blocs don’t last forever, Republicans must unite populists and conservatives to build a governing majority in elections to come.  Forging such a coalition will require a measure of political innovation to capture the new directions in which voters are moving, both within the conservative movement and across the country.  Republicans in Congress who fail to reflect newly emerging populist sentiments across an ever-larger share of voters nation-wide risk frustrating and eroding what may become a pillar of the GOP’s core base. 

About Baron

Baron has guided clients through the most challenging political terrain for more than 15 years.  Applying a methodology focused on mastering the strategic competition of interests, Baron has advised some of the nation’s most prominent organizations, including members of the Fortune 10, several of America’s largest privately held businesses, and the U.S. Department of Defense.  Baron advises the Institute for Political Innovation, the leading organization advancing Final Five Voting.